Phyrex|Oct 06, 2026 13:00
The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds has surpassed a new high in nearly 24 years
On the early morning of October 6th, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.351% during trading, setting a new high in nearly 24 years. If long-term interest rates continue to rise, it will increase the cost of issuing corporate bonds, residential mortgages, and refinancing old bonds. Even if the Federal Reserve does not continue to raise interest rates temporarily, financing pressure will also increase.
In the past month, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds increased from 4.75% to 5.28%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points. Over the same period, the real yield measured by inflation resistant treasury bond rose from 2.44% to 2.92%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points. The majority of the increase in this stage is reflected in the actual yield, with investors demanding higher returns after deducting inflation.
The yield provided by US bonds has increased, and other investments also need to offer higher returns to attract funds. Enterprises need to borrow money to expand production, which requires project income to cover higher interest rates. Investors need the enterprise to have stronger profit growth or buy stocks at lower prices. The market's expectation of future interest rates, the supply of treasury bond, and the risk compensation required for holding long-term bonds will all affect the yield of US bonds.
For US stocks, if a company's profit expectations do not correspondingly increase, the rising cost of capital will put pressure on valuation, and companies with higher valuations and longer profit realization times are usually more affected. If the low interest bonds originally borrowed by the enterprise can only be renewed at a higher interest rate after maturity, the interest expenses will also increase, further compressing profits.
For Bitcoin: native inflow, the increase in US Treasury yields will increase the opportunity cost of holding non interest bearing assets. Investors bear price fluctuations and need to obtain higher expected returns, while the market also requires sustained spot buying to support prices.
In September, non farm payroll only added 29000 people, and employment growth has slowed down, but long-term financing costs are still rising. If the subsequent employment continues to weaken, the income growth of enterprises and residents slows down, and the actual rate of return cannot be reduced, consumption and investment may be limited by both income and borrowing costs. The longer this situation persists, the greater the pressure on the company's profitability and risk assets.
One @ Gate, trade more markets
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink