Review the market after NFP. I think the market is currently trading two very clear Reverse logics at the same time: 1. NFP → Rapid cooling of interest rate hike expectations In September, NFP only added 29000 people, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. At the same time, the total employment in July and August was revised down by 60000 people. (Bureau of Labor Statistics) The most direct change is the market repricing the FED. At present, the probability of a rate hike in October has decreased from about 64% a week ago to around 24%, and the market has basically started trading in October. Here is a time point to note: The remaining FOMC for this year are only on October 27-28 and December 8-9, with no interest rate meeting in November. So what should truly be observed is: Suspend in October → Do we still need to add in December → How many times are left in the entire interest rate hike cycle. What the market is really starting to trade early now is that the current interest rate hike cycle may be shortened. This is a direct marginal benefit for growth stocks and high valuation assets. But for now, I won't directly turn to comprehensive risk on this. Because another risk has not been resolved yet: The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds remains high. 10Y is still above 5%, and the long-term yield is affected by term premium, treasury bond bond supply and other factors, and does not fall sharply with the decline of interest rate increase expectations. So currently it's more like: Short end trading starts with the transition from FED to pigeon, while long end trading continues with fiscal/inflation/supply pressures. These two logics currently coexist. 2. Second clause Reverse: Crude oil Crude oil has also begun to experience a de facto decline. On Monday, Brent fell about 1.9% to $100.32, while WTI fell about 1.8% to $89.43. The reasons include the recovery of crude oil exports from the Middle East, the release of supply by G7, and Saudi Arabia's downward adjustment of Asia's OSP. This means that previously traded in the market: Rising oil prices → rising inflation → Fed becoming more hawkish → rising aviation/cruise costs Reverse trading is starting to appear: Oil prices fall → inflationary pressure decreases → FED interest rate hike pressure decreases → high fuel cost industry profit expectations recover. I will focus on observing two groups here: Cruise ship Carnival CCL Royal Caribbean RCL Norwegian Cruise Line NCLH aviation Delta Air Lines DAL United Airlines UAL American Airlines AAL Southwest Airlines LUV The commonality among these companies is simple: fuel is a very important cost item. Previously, when oil prices fell, AAL, UAL, and DAL experienced simultaneous increases of over 2%, while CCL, NCLH, and RCL also rose simultaneously, indicating that the market does indeed trade this cost side reverse. So my observation framework is very clear next: ① NFP Reverse Employment cooling → Probability of October interest rate hike plummets → Market begins trading, interest rate hike cycle shortens ② Oil Reverse Crude oil prices fall → inflation expectations ease → aviation/cruise cost expectations improve If oil prices continue to decline in the future and 10Y also begins to truly fall, then these two reversals will further spread from local industry transactions to the entire risk asset. The current maximum confirmation signal is still 10Y. —————— But the maximum framework remains unchanged, with only slight adjustments in the cycle.