PANews|Oct 06, 2026 01:24
[The Next Big Risk for U.S. Treasuries: A Futures 'Technical Switch' Could Amplify the Next Sell-Off]
According to Financialpost, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond is approaching 6%, and the next wave of volatility in the bond market may not only come from the spot market. A technical rule in U.S. Treasury futures contracts is emerging as a potential amplifier for further increases in long-term Treasury yields.
U.S. Treasury futures are widely used to hedge government bond positions and are also a key tool for leveraged funds employing strategies like 'basis trading.' Futures prices typically track the movements of the cheapest-to-deliver bond (CTD) within a basket of deliverable Treasuries. The issue arises when yields rise rapidly, altering the pricing relationships within the deliverable bond basket. As a result, the CTD may shift to a longer-maturity Treasury, triggering what is known as a 'CTD switch' and forcing investors to readjust their futures positions.
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