The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Oct 05, 2026 23:01
American wages are not keeping up with inflation. US average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation fell -0.3% YoY in September, marking the 5th consecutive decline in real wages. This follows a -0.2% YoY decrease in August, -0.3% in July, and -0.8% in June, the largest decline since May 2023. This marks a sharp deterioration from +1.3% YoY growth in real wages recorded in February. This all comes as US CPI inflation has remained above +3.0% for 6 consecutive months, the longest such streak since mid-2024. Meanwhile, in nominal terms, average hourly earnings rose +3.0% YoY in September, their slowest growth since May 2021. Nominal wage growth has been in a downtrend since March 2025, when earnings grew +4.2% YoY. Inflation is eroding the spending power of Americans.
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