⚡️The 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have both hit their highest levels since 2002. Is the U.S. stock market about to crash? History doesn’t repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes. In May 2002, the 30-year Treasury yield was at 5.84%. The aftershocks of the dot-com bubble hadn’t subsided, and the Nasdaq fell 31.5% for the year. The trigger wasn’t the interest rate itself—it was the financial fraud at Enron and WorldCom that completely shattered investor confidence. In July 2007, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3%. The subprime mortgage crisis began to erupt, and the Nasdaq 100 plunged 41.89% in 2008. High Treasury yields set the backdrop, but the real trigger was the wave of subprime mortgage defaults. In both crashes, Treasury yields weren’t the direct cause, but they were always present. They magnified the market’s vulnerabilities. When borrowing costs are already high, any crack is more likely to lead to a collapse. Now, the 10-year yield is at 5.31%, and the 30-year yield is at 5.67%. But here’s a counterintuitive phenomenon: Even though the 10-year yield has hit a 24-year high, the Nasdaq Composite Index still reached an all-time high on the same day. The momentum of AI is temporarily overshadowing the pressure from rising rates. However, retail investors and institutions are making completely opposite moves. According to the latest data from JPMorgan: Retail investors’ tilt toward buying long-term Treasury ETFs has reached an all-time extreme of +6.1 standard deviations. Retail investors are buying the dip. But what about institutions? Pimco and BlackRock are calling it an “opportunity.” Michael Darda from Roth just flipped his TLT position to short, then closed it to wait and see. At the same table, retail investors are betting on “rates peaking,” while institutions are betting “it’s not over yet.” Who’s right? The bond market never listens to retail investors. History is reminding you: Rates aren’t the trigger. But they make the powder keg easier to ignite. Will the bursting of the AI bubble be the next trigger for a U.S. stock market crash?