The US stock market is currently in a state of 'index in the cloud, individual stocks in the mud'. ⚡ Half of the US stocks have entered a bear market ❗ ️ The S&P 500 is still at a historic high, Relying solely on a few tech giants to hold on, Especially Nvidia and Apple. But below the index, it is already a mess: Semiconductor: 96% of individual stocks fell by over 20%, and 69% fell by over 40%. Software: 75% down over 20%. Automobiles: 71% fell by over 20%, with each one dropping by at least 10%. Among the Russell 3000 constituent stocks, 51% have fallen more than 20% from their June high. The median stock of the S&P 500 is 16% lower than its 52 week high. Market breadth dropped to the lowest level since the Internet foam burst. The US stock index is floating in the clouds, and individual stocks have fallen into the quagmire, There is a 12% deviation gap between the two. Da Mo said that this is not a deterioration of fundamentals, but a compression of valuation. The true arbiter is the US Treasury. The 10-year US Treasury yield has returned to 5.25%, The volatility of US Treasury bonds is not decreasing, and the S&P 500 may fall to 7300 within a month. The volatility of US Treasury bonds has cooled down, individual stocks have risen, and the index continues to rise. The index you see is an illusion, The breadth that you cannot see is the reality. What would be the trigger that pierces all of this? This will not be a single piece of news or a single negative news, There are three mechanisms already tied to the string: Firstly, there are cracks in the AI narrative. Bank of America said that AI is the "last line of defense" for the US stock market. Once the AI story cannot continue, All suppressed macro risks will erupt simultaneously, Triggering severe fluctuations in global stock markets! Secondly, the yield of US Treasury bonds is out of control. The 10-year period is already 5.25%. Da Mo said that the true threshold for rupture is 5.5% -6%. Once there, the valuation logic will be completely rewritten. Thirdly, pension funds are forced to be sold. Goldman Sachs estimates that a $33 billion stock sell-off is already on its way. The fuse doesn't need to be very large, Because of gunpowder, the US stock market has already been filled with it. A single spark can start a prairie fire!