bitcoin:native is back near $87,000 again, but this time feels different from the last. The first time it surged to $87,400, it quickly pulled back, indicating heavy selling pressure from trapped positions and long-term holders. However, during the pullback, $BTC consistently held the $83,000-$84,000 range, with daily lows continuing to rise. Now it's approaching the previous high again, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually being absorbed rather than bulls retreating. In the first two trading days of this month, spot ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $134.4 million. Weak non-farm payroll data has also reduced the likelihood of an October rate hike, creating a short-term macro environment that's slightly bullish. However, the intensity of ETF inflows is still not strong, and U.S. Treasury yields remain high. So here, we can't just focus on intraday spikes—we need to watch daily closes. The next steps are clear: If volume increases and $87,400 is broken, with $88,000 holding steady, the daily chart will confirm a valid breakout. The target would first be $90,000-$93,000, with further potential to $96,000. If it surges again but pulls back and falls below $85,000, it means the selling pressure above hasn't been fully absorbed, and the price might retest $83,000. Losing $82,000 would invalidate the short-term breakout logic. My take: The success rate of this second attempt at $87,000 is higher than the first, but until $88,000 is firmly held, it's still just a test, not the main rally. True strength isn't just about breaking through—it’s about holding the level after breaking through.