Willy Woo's Latest Analysis: Goodbye to the 4-Year Halving Narrative—Is BTC Shifting to a 6–8 Year Macro Debt Cycle? Renowned on-chain analyst Willy Woo has introduced a groundbreaking perspective: Bitcoin might be breaking free from the gravitational pull of the long-standing 4-year halving cycle and gradually aligning with the 6–8 year short-term debt cycle of traditional finance! 1. Why is the “internal pull” of the 4-year halving cycle weakening? The core logic of past 4-year cycles was the strong supply shock brought by halving: Drastic drop in issuance rate: With each halving, Bitcoin’s annual new supply has already decreased to around 0.8%, and it’s set to further decline to 0.4% in the future. Diminishing marginal effects: When the inflation rate is already lower than gold, the reduction in new mining output has a significantly diluted impact on the supply-demand dynamics of the secondary market. Simply relying on “halving” alone can no longer independently drive a wild bull market. ️ 2. External takeover: The “injection effect” of the 6–8 year debt cycle in traditional finance As internal driving forces weaken, external macro liquidity becomes the core factor dominating price movements: Aligning with macro cycles: Traditional financial markets often follow a 6–8 year short-term debt cycle (e.g., the Fed’s rate hike/cut cycles, global liquidity expansion and contraction). The inevitable result of institutionalization: With the launch of spot ETFs and the deep integration of BTC with traditional asset management giants and corporate treasuries, the structure of Bitcoin’s liquidity pool has fundamentally changed. BTC is increasingly resembling a “high-beta amplifier for global macro liquidity.” 3. What does this mean for investors? 1️⃣ Longer bull and bear cycles: The old script of “3 years up, 1 year down” might evolve into longer consolidation periods and more sustained bull market uptrends. 2️⃣ Focus on macro and liquidity: Instead of fixating on the halving countdown, the future calls for closer attention to the Fed’s debt restructuring cycles, global M2 supply growth, and the progression of rate-cutting cycles.