Oil prices and U.S. Treasury bond correlation hit a 35-year high The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and oil prices' 3-month rolling correlation coefficient has risen to 65%, just slightly below the record of 66% during the Gulf War in 1990. Where long-term bond yields go next largely depends on oil price trends, which are closely tied to developments in Iran. Aside from oil prices, the other two driving factors for rising long-term bond yields—excessive issuance of deficit bonds and the AI-driven tech bond boom—are structural and unlikely to reverse in the short term.