小龙先生|Oct 03, 2026 12:40
《Three-Dimensional Trading System|BTC Market Analysis (2/3): On-Chain Data》
---- Mid-tier whales and super whales are battling it out, while retail investors are caught in the crossfire!
The on-chain data shows clear divergence.
Mid-tier whales are accumulating. Wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC have collectively added approximately 41,025 BTC over the past 10 days, bringing their total holdings to 13.64 million BTC.
This accounts for 67.93% of circulating supply, the highest level in six weeks. This explains why bullish momentum can sometimes be so strong.
Retail investors are staying on the sidelines. Wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC have barely made any moves and haven’t followed the recent trends.
ETF fund flows are erratic, acting like a weather vane. September saw a net inflow of $2.65 billion, marking the highest quarterly inflow of the year.
However, the last day of September recorded a net outflow of $149 million, breaking a nine-day streak of inflows. On October 1, inflows resumed with $102.7 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone contributing $196 million.
The movements of super whales need attention. Data shows that the broader whale group reduced holdings by approximately 30,000 BTC, worth around $2.52 billion, between late September and early October.
Mid-tier whales are buying, while larger whales are selling—tokens are shifting hands. This explains why bearish momentum is surging at higher levels. When giants clash, the little guys suffer!
On-chain verdict: Mid-tier whales are accumulating, retail investors are observing, and ETF fund flows are fluctuating. Tokens are transferring from larger whales to mid-tier whales. Short-term outlook is neutral, while the mid-term outlook leans bullish.
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