比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto|Oct 03, 2026 11:48
On-chain Bitcoin data is telling us: the long-term bullish structure hasn’t been broken yet.
This time, we’re looking at the MVRV Z-Score.
Here’s a very critical signal right now:
The MVRV Z-Score is still holding above the 365-day moving average.
Why is this important?
Looking back at previous cycles, when the MVRV Z-Score successfully broke above the 365-day moving average,
this long-term moving average often acted as a key dynamic support during subsequent bullish phases.
In other words:
Short-term prices can crash, sentiment can hit extreme panic,
but as long as this long-term on-chain structure hasn’t been truly broken,
we can’t easily define a deep correction as the start of a new long-term bear market.
And here’s what’s even more interesting right now—
BTC’s price has already undergone a significant correction,
the MVRV Z-Score even briefly returned to historically low levels,
but the long-term structure still hasn’t shown any decisive damage.
Plus, there’s still a clear gap between the current MVRV levels and the truly overheated zones from past cycles.
So what I’m really focusing on isn’t:
“BTC has already risen so much, is this the end?”
But rather:
Can the MVRV Z-Score continue to hold above the 365-day moving average?
If it holds—then the long-term bullish structure remains intact.
If it decisively breaks below and continues to weaken—that’s when I’ll reassess the cycle structure.
Price creates emotions, but on-chain data helps us confirm the structure.
As of now:
This rally hasn’t shown the typical overheated on-chain signals of a cycle top yet.
Always let your positions reflect your analysis.
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