比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto
比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto|Oct 03, 2026 11:48
On-chain Bitcoin data is telling us: the long-term bullish structure hasn’t been broken yet. This time, we’re looking at the MVRV Z-Score. Here’s a very critical signal right now: The MVRV Z-Score is still holding above the 365-day moving average. Why is this important? Looking back at previous cycles, when the MVRV Z-Score successfully broke above the 365-day moving average, this long-term moving average often acted as a key dynamic support during subsequent bullish phases. In other words: Short-term prices can crash, sentiment can hit extreme panic, but as long as this long-term on-chain structure hasn’t been truly broken, we can’t easily define a deep correction as the start of a new long-term bear market. And here’s what’s even more interesting right now— BTC’s price has already undergone a significant correction, the MVRV Z-Score even briefly returned to historically low levels, but the long-term structure still hasn’t shown any decisive damage. Plus, there’s still a clear gap between the current MVRV levels and the truly overheated zones from past cycles. So what I’m really focusing on isn’t: “BTC has already risen so much, is this the end?” But rather: Can the MVRV Z-Score continue to hold above the 365-day moving average? If it holds—then the long-term bullish structure remains intact. If it decisively breaks below and continues to weaken—that’s when I’ll reassess the cycle structure. Price creates emotions, but on-chain data helps us confirm the structure. As of now: This rally hasn’t shown the typical overheated on-chain signals of a cycle top yet. Always let your positions reflect your analysis.
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