Weak non-farm payrolls failed to lower the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield The U.S. only added 29,000 non-farm jobs in September, and the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to around 22%. Logically, with a lower chance of rate hikes, Treasury yields should also decline. After the data was released, yields did dip for a while, briefly falling below 5.17%, but later climbed back to 5.3%. The rise in U.S. stocks is easy to understand—previously, everyone was worried about the Fed raising rates again, but now that concern has eased, funds are naturally willing to buy back some positions. However, the fact that the 10-year Treasury yield bounced back suggests that this employment data alone isn’t enough to reassure the market. After all, if you’re lending money for ten years, you’re not just thinking about whether the Fed will hike rates next month. You’re also worried about future inflation and how long interest rates will stay high. As long as these concerns remain unresolved, bond buyers will continue to demand higher yields. The Fed might pause rate hikes for now, but borrowing costs for businesses and mortgage rates for households could still remain high. For stocks, the fact that you can earn relatively high interest by buying Treasuries will influence how much investors are willing to pay for equities. So, while weak non-farm payrolls did give the market a bit of relief, the pressure from high interest rates is still there. Personally, the yield on 10-year Treasuries is already close to matching the returns from bitcoin:native funding rate arbitrage. Check out @Gate for trading across more markets!