Yesterday, Da Bing painted the door yesterday. From a personal perspective, the core reason is still that liquidity has been tightening recently. Last week, bank reserves were at 3.03 trillion yuan, but dropped to 2.96 trillion yuan last week. The average reserve balance for each working day in the week before September 30 this week was 2.94 trillion yuan. However, by the end of Wednesday, the reserve balance suddenly dropped to 2.88 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to more than 60 billion US dollars being withdrawn on that day. The corresponding TGA account balance of the Ministry of Finance has also rebounded to over 980 billion US dollars. Bank reserves are the core of US dollar liquidity, and tightening liquidity still has a suppressive effect on the market, with unlimited and difficult to sustain gains. The secondary reason is that oil prices rebounded again in the latter half of last night, and the yield on long-term bonds also came back, which suppressed assets. In mid August, here is https://(((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2090259492147707966? S=20 has been sorted out: The balance path of the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance in the fourth quarter is: $950 billion TGA at the end of September → around $1.05 trillion in late October → $850 billion at the end of December. The corresponding reserve requirements tightened from the end of September to the end of October, and gradually rebounded after November. So overall liquidity was tight in October. Of course, from a personal perspective, the downward trend of the major cycle in the past year has been reversed, and the most significant adjustment brought about by liquidity is the normal upward trend of the major cycle. Previously, here was https://(((x.com))/qinbifank/status/2091072426570613211? The biggest significance of the market around August 20th is to remind everyone to change their attitude towards the cryptocurrency market. If they were pessimistic in the past, they should start to be optimistic in the future. Also from mid June https://(((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2090745132178141301? S=20 and we kept talking until: June to November will be a configuration period. If there were any further adjustments, wouldn't it be an opportunity to buy on dips? Many people may ask what impact the reduction of bank reserves and tightening of liquidity will have on the US stock market? We've talked about it before, let's talk about it again: 1) Personally, I have long regarded bank reserve requirements/USD net liquidity as one of the core frameworks for looking at big cakes and cryptocurrencies, but this is not the main framework for looking at US stocks. 2) The impact of changes in US dollar liquidity/reserves on the US stock market is much smaller than that of big cakes and cryptocurrencies. 3) From the perspective of the US stock market, the core still holds the first weight in fundamentals, followed by capital aspects such as repurchases and net international capital inflows. If the liquidity of the US dollar is good, the overall market can rise, otherwise only the most core and growth oriented assets can strengthen. Let Grok sort out my previous tweets about the impact of liquidity (bank reserves) on the big cake and cryptocurrency, as well as its impact on the US stock market: https://(((x.com))/i/Grok? conversation=2106206650185208151