Jobs data missed, and it wasn’t close: Nonfarm payrolls: +29K vs. ~90K expected July and August revised down 60K combined (July is now a loss) Unemployment: 4.2%, up from 4.1% Wage growth: cooled to 3.0% YoY Under its dual mandate, stable prices versus maximum employment, the Fed knows another hike would raise borrowing costs and pinch hiring in a labor market that is already cooling. This print doesn’t completely kill the case for an October move, since the three-month pace is still near breakeven and the household survey was stronger, but it leaves a lot less room to tighten again.