Phyrex|Oct 02, 2026 18:27
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the September non farm payroll data for the United States was updated. During the Powell era, the non farm payroll data had a greater impact, but in the Walsh era, I personally feel that the non farm payroll data had a much smaller impact.
But for the current non-agricultural sector, it is still a situation where good data is bad data and bad data is good data. Today is very typical, as the unemployment rate in September rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Non farm employment has experienced a significant contraction, dropping from 133000 last month to 29000. Instead, the market is celebrating a decrease in the probability of a rate hike in October.
Because good non farm data, such as a decrease in unemployment rate, an increase in non farm employment, and an increase in wage growth, are all good data that reflect the resilience of the US economy. However, for the Federal Reserve, the better the US economy is, the more confident it is in maintaining high interest rates.
So good non farm payroll data is beneficial for the risk market in a low inflation era, but it is not good news for a high inflation era, which is now.
On the contrary, bad data means that high interest rates are putting pressure on the US economy, and the Federal Reserve has to balance the relationship between the labor market and interest rates. It cannot simply maintain high interest rates, such as rising unemployment rates, declining labor force, slowing wage growth, or turning into negative growth. Although it is not conducive to the US economy, it is beneficial for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates or at least not easily raise them.
This is what I often say about happy funerals.
So with today's data, what can help the market is an increase in unemployment rate and a significant decrease in labor force, which must be lower than expected. This is the good thing.
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