The non-farm payroll data came out just as expected, and the October rate hike probability has dropped to around 23%, but the risk markets didn’t see much of a boost. After all, the December rate hike probability is still close to 67%, which is weighing on the market. Inflation concerns are still dominating. Even though U.S. allies have released oil reserves, causing WTI to briefly plunge below $89, the U.S.-Iran geopolitical risks are still making the market uneasy. Plus, the September CPI data will be released in October. The market is still pretty worried right now. As mentioned earlier, it all depends on how the U.S.-Iran negotiations progress. If there’s a significant breakthrough in the talks, oil prices could drop sharply, easing inflation pressures and reducing expectations for rate hikes this year. That’s the only way risk markets can stop being so hesitant to rally. At the moment, Trump seems to be celebrating a bit too early, but will Iran stand firm or make concessions? They’re probably weighing the pros and cons like crazy. The best-case scenario would be for the U.S. and Iran to continue negotiations this month, expectations of free passage through the strait, oil prices dropping below $80 or even lower, and Trump not stirring things up after the midterm elections. In that case, rate hike expectations would fade significantly, which would naturally benefit U.S. stocks and Bitcoin. If that’s not the script we get… Then we might just have to tough it out a bit longer.