比特币橙子Trader|Oct 02, 2026 13:17
Holy crap, the Fed's rate hike expectations got smashed down to 12%. Is Bitcoin hitting $90,000+ this month?
The biggest macro shift this week is the market's expectation for the Fed to continue raising rates in October, which has been repeatedly slashed.
At the start of the week, job openings dropped to 7.079 million, below expectations.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls data hit even harder—only 29,000 jobs added in September, compared to the market's expectation of 90,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate actually rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Wage growth was also weak, with a month-over-month increase of just +0.1% and a year-over-year increase of +3.0%. The labor market is clearly cooling down.
Earlier this week, the market was pricing in about a 70% chance of a rate hike in October. After tonight's non-farm payrolls data, that probability was smashed down to 12% at one point, before bouncing back to around 19%.
The 10-year Treasury yield also quickly dropped from this week's high of around 5.34% to about 5.16%.
Then oil prices came in with another assist.
Europe is discussing releasing 50 million barrels of diesel reserves and pushing IEA members to release another 50 million barrels of crude oil. Brent has already fallen back below $100, and WTI has dropped below $90.
As oil prices fall, energy inflation pressures ease, and the Fed has one less reason to raise rates in October.
Cooling employment + collapsing rate hike probabilities + falling Treasury yields + dropping oil prices = macro risks are decreasing. And risk markets are charging ahead at the first opportunity. Bitcoin surged to $87,000+ at one point, up nearly 4% in 24 hours, peaking at $87,220. It's actually just a little over 3% away from $90,000.
Let’s go, keep pushing
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