Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise, BTC Surges to $87K: The Real Game-Changer is October Rate Hike Odds! September nonfarm payrolls added only 29K jobs, far below the expected 90K; unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% year-over-year. Coupled with downward revisions to the previous two months' employment data, the cooling U.S. job market is no longer just a one-month anomaly but a continuous trend. Weaker employment increases the risk of economic downturn if rate hikes continue; slower wage growth also eases the pressure of another rebound in service inflation. A rate hike pause in October has essentially become the market's baseline scenario. However, core inflation remains around 3%, and risks like oil prices and geopolitical tensions haven’t disappeared, so it’s still too early to talk about rate cuts. For BTC, weak employment data is short-term bullish. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are under pressure, giving risk assets some breathing room. After breaking through $85.5K and triggering short squeezes, BTC quickly surged to $87K. That said, weak data isn’t all good news. If upcoming economic data continues to deteriorate, the market narrative could shift from "no rate hikes" to "recession." If U.S. stocks open high but close low, BTC could also face a "sell the news" scenario. Key levels to watch next: $87.4K–$88K is the main resistance zone. If BTC breaks above with strong volume, the next targets are $90K–$93K. $85.5K is the short-term pivot. Holding above it confirms the breakout. A drop below $83K–$84K signals weakening bullish momentum; losing $82K would mean the nonfarm payrolls boost has been fully priced in. My take: Weak employment data has significantly reduced the risk of an October rate hike. The probability of BTC testing $90K this month is increasing, but the post-data rally isn’t the key. What matters is whether BTC can hold $85.5K after U.S. markets open and turn $88K into support. That will determine whether this is the start of a new trend or just a "sell the news" event.