qinbafrank|Oct 02, 2026 12:45
September's non-farm payrolls came in way below expectations, breaking the pattern we discussed this afternoon about how September non-farm payrolls have been strong for the past three years. A few impacts:
1) The October rate hike expectations are further dismissed, increasing the likelihood of the FOMC staying put, easing rate-related tensions.
2) The cooling labor market could also lead to a drop in long-term bond yields. As mentioned in last night's October market framework tweet, falling long-term bond yields reduce macro headwinds suppressing the market, which is positive for risk assets.
3) Oil prices are also continuing to decline. Last night's tweet also touched on this: "Marginal changes are key. If the protective measures persist, the upward momentum for oil prices will weaken, and a downward trend might start to emerge.
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