[Nonfarm payroll data falls short of expectations, probability of Fed holding rates steady surges to 85%] Kalshi prediction market currently prices the probability of the Federal Reserve staying put in October at 85%. This month's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, compared to the market expectation of 84,000. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, triggering a significant dovish repricing of market expectations for Fed policy outlook.