Today's market The surge in the non farm pre-market Asian market is a bit inexplicable .. If it had been sideways at 85k yesterday, it would have been relatively easier to do off farm today After all, 85k is at the midpoint of the interval, and inserting 2000 points upwards or downwards will bring you to a more comfortable entrance area at the edge of the interval ... But with this pull before the market, we have now reached the upper edge of the range . If the non farm payroll data is negative, it may be okay to plan towards the midpoint or lower edge of the range .. But if the non farm payroll data is positive (such as not being as strong in employment and not supporting interest rate hikes), then now this place is very conflicted about whether to increase liquidity or prepare for a bigger breakthrough ... ----------- Let's first study what drove today's Asian market surge in terms of funds .. From CVD perspective (Figure 1) This wave of start-up signs can be seen as early as last night's wave of Binance spot injection . A market price of a few hundred BTC directly injected a needle into the spot market .. And the subsequent launch still depends on Coinbase in China after 1am (The start time of this Coinbase is also very mysterious, it's already bedtime in Europe and America) The 4H and 2H premium models also captured this change at 1:21 and 1:12 .. (Below Figure 1) During this period, Binance had two instances of selling pressure, but both were caught by passive buying .. Coinbase is still dominant now, and the pre market premium has been consistently positive. Why did the US buy into the non farm market like this? I don't understand .... -------------- Structurally speaking (Figure 3) A standard auction theory has been followed since September 21st . There are three small boxes inside this large box . After the breakthrough is completed, box 1 is digested above and then falls below box 2 formed below Box 2 has attempted several attempts to retrieve VAL from Box 1, but all attempts have been rejected (the 600 BTC spot sell order is affecting the market) After PCE suddenly appeared, it was unable to stand firmly. Ultimately, today's Asian market breakthrough was successful and accepted to form a new small oscillation range. There are actually many choices here The green, yellow, and blue on the right side of Figure 3 . So there's no way to guess, we can only eat by looking at the dishes . The yellow line plot in Figure 3 suggests that the SFP may have reached a high point before 87k. The high point has already been tested on the Asian drive today and could not be inserted to reach a higher peak. If the non farm can insert 87.3k before the high-energy recovery later This SFP is a potential high-altitude entry point. The plot of the blue line in Figure 3, if you go down, you need to look around 85k. Previously, there was a VAH on the upper edge of the box, and below it. At the same time, 85k also has the 600 BTC buy order mentioned in the previous article. If 85k holds, then continue to digest in the upper range. If you can't hold on, go back below. In addition, there is a green line plot with particularly high non farm sentiment that continues to be tested upwards. This is difficult to do Because there are PCE painted doors between the front cars. It's hard to say whether this will continue to break through or create another wave of higher liquidity. After all, it has been done before. You can refer to the route of the 75-80k section. Figure 4. ----------- This brings us back to a larger cycle, as shown in Figure 4 for the scenario of two wave symmetry. In the previous wave, the first wave broke through to the horizontal box after 80k, and it took more than 20 days to complete the breakthrough after hitting SFP three times. Three SFP attempts ultimately led to an increase of approximately 3%. This time, there are currently no new SFPs available If we follow symmetry and accumulate 3% one or several times, we may eventually reach a position around 90k. Then come back with a 9% bounce. There are also considerations for the position of stepping back. During the August period, there was actually a lot of demand for spot and contract purchases in the 75-76k range. Similar to this time at 82-83k. But the previous attempts did not really penetrate. The last time I plunged in was with the help of the deteriorating macro sentiment (confirmation of interest rate hikes), which led to a 75k But many people didn't dare to enter that 75k (because the macro is very poor) And if this wave continues to test liquidity up to 3% and eventually falls back to 9%. I just arrived at 82k, which has been a place for various buying and hanging orders. But whether we can break out of such a plot depends on what kind of "bad news" the market uses to guide us. Non farm farming is coming soon Write it down here first