小龙先生|Oct 02, 2026 12:11
《Three-Dimensional Trading System|BTC Market Analysis (3/3): Structural Patterns and Core Judgments》
-----BTC price breaks through 85K—is it a second attempt at the peak or the start of a new upward trend?
**Structural Patterns:** 85K shifts from resistance to support, the next key level is 87K.
BTC surged from 83,400 to 86,500 today, breaking through the 85,000 sell wall. 85,000 has now transitioned from resistance to support.
The upper resistance is at 87K, which is the last key level below the September 21 high of 87,500. The first support below is at 85,450, and further down, 83K is a liquidation-heavy zone.
Tonight is the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, but based on historical data, it doesn’t seem that significant.
PCE indicates cooling inflation, while ADP suggests strong employment—two conflicting data points. Regardless of the NFP numbers, the market may interpret them divergently, with a high probability of price spikes in both directions. A second attempt near 88K is very likely.
**Xiaolong’s Core Judgment:**
The bears’ defense line has been breached, and the 85K sell wall has been eaten up—this is the most significant change today.
With reduced liquidity above, the price may accelerate upward. This means that if buying pressure continues, 88K might not be the end, and a new upward trend could start earlier than expected.
However, we need to stay cautious. Futures buying pressure has hit a six-week high, leverage is piling up too quickly, and the order book shows that bearish funds are also entering the market.
85K is now the critical line—holding above it means further testing of 87K; breaking below it could accelerate liquidations and push the price back to 83K.
With tonight’s NFP, I don’t recommend betting on a single direction right now—the price volatility will likely be significant!
Better to stay on the sidelines for now, watch the drama unfold, and wait for the bulls and bears to decide the winner before jumping in.
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