The September non-farm payroll data dropping tonight has its biggest risk coming from seasonal factors: for the past three years, September's non-farm payroll numbers have significantly exceeded expectations. Here are a few forward-looking indicators for non-farm payrolls that are slightly stronger: 1) September ADP private payrolls came in at 90K, higher than the expected 70K; 2) Initial jobless claims during the reference week in September were around 196K–198K, lower than August's survey week at approximately 207K; continuing claims dropped to about 1.719M (previously around 1.771M); 3) ISM manufacturing employment index rose to 52.7, showing improvement in manufacturing hiring; 4) Challenger layoffs in September were 43,281, down about 18% from August's 52,881, marking the lowest September since 2022, with reduced layoff pressure. So, will tonight continue the trend of strong September non-farm payrolls over the past three years?