bitcoin:native has achieved three consecutive monthly green candles, and with Q4 already underway, the real question for the market is whether the momentum can continue! Historically, it's not uncommon to see three consecutive green candles at bear market lows. In 2020 and 2023, BTC continued to strengthen after breaking through long-term resistance, while in 2019, a lack of liquidity led to a sharp pullback after a rally. So, three green candles only indicate that the trend is recovering—it’s not enough to confirm a bull market on its own. The current fundamentals are indeed healthier than mid-year. Selling pressure from long-term holders is decreasing, exchange reserves are steadily dropping, and funding rates and leverage aren’t showing signs of overheating, suggesting this rally is supported by spot buying. The macro environment remains mixed. Core PCE came in below expectations, reducing the likelihood of a rate hike in October, which is favorable for risk assets. However, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5%, and oil prices and geopolitical risks could still push inflation higher. Whether Q4 can sustain the rally depends on two key factors: whether ETF buying can offset selling pressure at higher levels, and whether U.S. Treasury yields can truly pull back. In terms of price, $80K–$82K is the first line of defense for October. Holding this level would pave the way to challenge $85.5K–$88K. If $80K is breached, the next support is at $76K. If $76K also fails, we’ll need to reassess whether $58K is the cycle bottom. There’s a high probability of more action in Q4, but it’s more likely to see some consolidation and rotation first before choosing a direction. After a period of adjustment, there could be another wave of short-term momentum. Let’s wait and see!