《Three-in-One Trading System｜BTC Evening Market Analysis (2/3): On-Chain Data》---- Funds are starting to flow out, bulls are diverging. There’s a notable divergence appearing on-chain. Short-term holders’ profits are narrowing. The cost basis for short-term holders has risen from $72,800 on September 24 to $73,700 on October 1. This means that those who bought around $83,000 are seeing their average cost increase, with profit margins shrinking from 15.4% to 13.7%. But whales are starting to sell BTC. Between September 27 and October 1, Bitcoin whales offloaded approximately 30,000 BTC, worth about $2.52 billion. The key point: This happened during price consolidation—not panic selling, but “quiet distribution”—selling their chips to buyers while prices remain stable or slightly rising. Damn whales ETFs are also weakening. On September 30, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $125.6 million, reversing the previous trend of continuous inflows. The order book shows both bulls and bears increasing their order sizes. Once the market breaks out, one side is bound to lose big—I’m betting the bulls will get crushed! On-chain judgment: Short-term holders are still holding on, but whales are quietly reducing their positions during consolidation, and ETFs have shifted from inflows to outflows. Chips are transferring from strong hands to weak hands, which is a short-term bearish signal. Funds are starting to flow out, and the mid-to-short-term trend may be about to reverse.