Oil exports from the Gulf are recovering, and the ceiling for oil price increases is lowering—continuing to short oil. According to the latest estimates from Kpler, crude oil exports from Middle Eastern Gulf countries (excluding Iran) in September have returned to pre-war levels, reaching at least 16.5 million barrels per day. About 40% of this crude oil no longer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, compared to just 17% before the war. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are increasingly using pipelines to transport oil. Looking at this data, the foundation for oil prices to gradually decline is strengthening. After all, as long as crude oil continues to enter the market, the pressure on buyers to scramble for alternative supplies will ease, and concerns about future supply disruptions will decrease. Even if the U.S. and Iran don’t reach a ceasefire agreement temporarily, the recovery in supply itself has the potential to push back some of the previous price increases. Oil prices are still relatively high right now, and there are practical reasons for this. The inventory consumed over the past few months needs time to replenish, and rerouting and ship-to-ship transfers have increased transportation costs. These factors will affect the speed and extent of the price decline. If exports can be maintained in the coming weeks, arrival volumes continue to increase, inventories gradually stop declining, and demand doesn’t rebound significantly, then the upward channel for oil prices will hit a ceiling. This is what I often say: oil prices cannot rise indefinitely, and the downward channel will gradually open. Currently, WTI is relatively stable around $92, while Brent is priced slightly higher, with a spread of about $8. That’s why I’ve been increasing my position in Brent. Theoretically, the spread could return to around $5, so shorting Brent (BZUSDT) at high prices offers better cost-effectiveness. Shoutout to @Gate—trade more markets!