水博乱乱|Oct 01, 2026 10:52
Let's continue playing in this neighborhood for another day Yesterday, PCE took down the sell order wall and hit 85k of short liquidity ..
There is a feeling that there is still an expectation to continue to push down in the short term.
In the past few days, a series of upward lows have formed below 83k .
It seems like there is a trend line that is overeating Actually, looking at the order book, this is more of a series of continuously rising contract hanging walls . (Figure 1)
So 82k~83k has always been a place where many contract funds have been deployed during this period.
In the next few days, you can also keep an eye on whether there is a plot of inserting and withdrawing before inserting .
If the top few in the range of 82~83k can be recovered after playing, it is a very good low point .
On the contrary, if it cannot be retrieved, one must anticipate whether it will return to the previous large range .
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From a financial perspective, the ETF, after a continuous decrease in net inflows, turned negative yesterday .
But the Americans have just woken up today, so we can only see their attitude later and make further changes later.
Coinbase spot CVD did not see any selling in the Asian session today
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From a structural perspective, (Figure 2)
Now the weekly and monthly lines are closing above the May high, and the price is still above the large box from February to September. Also standing above some columns of AVWAP (Average Cost Line of the Market) that have come down from the high point. So it is still relatively stable.
The current sideways range coincides with the low trading gap during the February plunge. So there are currently a lot of hand changes happening here.
At the same time, the spot sales wall above (85k wave) has been eaten up and no new sales orders have been added.
On the contrary, there are still a large number of contract purchases supporting it.
So in the medium term, it is expected that the box oscillation will continue to dominate here.
In the long run, there is currently a buffer zone between the cost lines of the bulls and bears on the chain (real average price and short-term holder cost). Long term excess has not been broken. (Figure 3)
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So overall, the short-term liquidity in the next few days will still be around 82-83k (For example, tomorrow's non farm day)
In the medium term, the current 82-87k box is oscillating .
In the long run, there will still be a tendency towards excess ..
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