BitUnix analyst: US consumption and employment remain resilient, cooling inflation fails to reverse US debt decline According to BlockBeats, on October 1st, the annual growth rate of core PCE in August in the United States dropped to 3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.3%, and the monthly growth rate was only 0.2%, indicating that inflationary pressure has eased. However, actual personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.6% per month, the largest increase since March 2025, reflecting the resilience of household demand. The simultaneous cooling of inflation and strong consumption has made it difficult for the Federal Reserve to determine whether further policy tightening is needed based solely on monthly data, and it remains to be seen whether prices can continue to fall in the future. Employment data further increases the complexity of policy judgments. ADP shows that the US private sector added 90000 jobs in September, higher than market expectations of 70000, ending three consecutive months of weak performance. If non farm employment also shows resilience on Friday, it will weaken the reasons for economic cooling to support loose policies; On the contrary, if official data clearly weakens, the market may reassess the path of interest rates. However, ADP and non farm statistics have different approaches, and it is still necessary to avoid directly considering a single indicator as the overall labor market. It is worth noting that lower than expected inflation data has not prevented US bond yields from continuing to rise. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to 5.295%, and the 2-year yield is also close to 4.90%, reflecting that the market is not only concerned about short-term inflation, but also re pricing Federal Reserve policies, fiscal deficits, and long-term funding costs. Federal Reserve officials continue to emphasize the importance of price stability, while stress test reforms reduce the annual fluctuations in capital requirements for large banks and improve the predictability of capital planning by averaging two test results. However, this does not necessarily mean that the overall capital requirements for banks will necessarily decrease. Overall, the core issue facing the market is not just whether inflation has cooled down, but whether economic resilience can continue under high interest rates, and whether fiscal and financing needs continue to push up long-term yields. If employment and consumption remain strong, the Federal Reserve may need to maintain tightening for a longer period of time; If economic data weakens and policy expectations may ease, it is still necessary to pay attention to the risk of long-term interest rates being affected by fiscal supply and term premiums. The situation where short-term policies may not necessarily synchronize with long-term financing costs will continue to affect the valuation environment of the US dollar, bonds, and cryptocurrency assets.