2026.10.1 BitTiger's Thought Log

Just had a sudden thought about the future of Bitcoin: If all the Bitcoin held by U.S.-traceable entities—companies, governments, individuals, families, funds, etc.—exceeds 50% of the current circulating supply, it will definitely trigger a qualitative change. At that point, the pricing power will completely fall into the hands of the U.S., and they might actually use Bitcoin to resolve debt issues. Feels like this might not take too long. Excluding Satoshi Nakamoto's ~1.1M BTC, the lost coins, and those untouched for over a decade (around 6M BTC), the effective circulating supply is roughly 13.9M BTC. Half of that is about 6.95M BTC. Currently, U.S.-traceable entities, ETFs, and the government hold about 3M BTC, leaving a gap of roughly 3.95M BTC. Based on the annual net increase of 250K–400K BTC held by U.S.-traceable entities in recent years, it would take about 10 to 16 years to fill that gap—around 2036 to 2042. It’s like a minority shareholder of a company spending a lot of time and effort to acquire over 50% of the shares to become the absolute majority shareholder. Once they achieve that, they’re bound to do things in their own favor. From this perspective, the future of BTC really looks promising. ✊✊ $84,000 ——2026.10.1