October 1st, wishing my great motherland peace and prosperity, and the people wealth and strength! Last year during National Day, gold prices surged over 40 yuan/gram in 8 days—such a market is rare and hard to replicate. Don’t expect the same this year. Right now, gold prices are hovering around $4100–$4200. Only if it stabilizes at $4250–$4320 can it show short-term strength! For now, there’s no clear trend—just sweeping up and down, catching both longs and shorts. August core PCE cooled down, and October rate hike expectations were shattered. But with oil prices staying high, there’s still a chance for another hike in December. Friday’s non-farm payroll data will be the next key checkpoint. The October 28 FOMC meeting is just 6 days before the midterm elections, making another rate hike awkward. Most likely, they’ll hold steady—which isn’t a major bullish signal for gold, but at least it’s not bearish either. Gold is essentially currency. Fiat can be printed, the dollar can suppress, but it can’t suppress long-term trends. Since 1971, gold has risen from $35 to this year’s peak of $5600—a 157x increase. When Volcker took office and hawkish expectations hit, prices were smashed from $5600 down to $4099, leaving many stuck at the bottom. Long-term bullish, short-term cautious. High leverage is like dynamite—physical gold + low-leverage DCA (dollar-cost averaging) is the only way to keep up with time. The $4120–$3950 range has seen over 40 days of consolidation before—it’s a solid support level and a good spot to set up long-term positions.