Today's focus is on the ADP employment data and core PCE figures. The former is pretty decent, showing the strong resilience of the U.S. economy. However, this also means the Fed can tolerate high interest rates for a longer period, giving them more leverage to continue hiking rates. That said, the slight dip in core PCE data has slightly reduced market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Although core PCE is based on adjusted data, there hasn’t been a significant increase compared to last month. Additionally, Williams’ speech early this morning also lowered expectations for a rate hike in October. So, after the release of the core PCE data, the market performed fairly well. U.S. Treasury yields started to drop, but with oil prices continuing to rise and ongoing uncertainties between the U.S. and Iran, the market is beginning to realize that there might be a significant gap between August and September inflation. Even if there’s no rate hike in October, there’s a high probability of one in December. As a result, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield directly broke past 5.3%, hitting a new high since 2002. This shows that investors are not optimistic about short-term inflation and are pessimistic about the Fed maintaining high interest rates. The higher the rates, the worse it is for risk markets. The same goes for Bitcoin. I’ve also noticed that Bitcoin:native is now far more sensitive to macroeconomic data than the stock market. When the core PCE data came out, it surged like crazy. Many friends interpret this as losing confidence again after the adjusted statistics, and it feels like the reaction is even stronger than that of U.S. stocks. One @Gate, trade more markets.