Good news! The August PCE Price Index core data came in softer than expected, and the probability of a rate hike in October has plummeted to 37%! But this time, the inflation data looks better not entirely because prices actually dropped—part of it is due to changes in the calculation method. The BEA retroactively revised and lowered categories like investment management, software, and legal services. Next up: watch Friday's non-farm payrolls, the October 14 CPI, and oil prices. Once these three are settled, the October 28 meeting will pretty much be a done deal!