[U.S. August Core PCE Below Expectations, Fed Rate Hike Bets for October Cool Down] BlockBeats News, September 30: The U.S. August core PCE price index rose 3% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since February and falling short of the market expectation of 3.3%. The previous value was revised from 3.3% to 3%. Month-on-month, it increased by 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3%. Overall PCE rose 3.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both below market expectations. Meanwhile, U.S. personal spending in August grew 0.9% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.8%. Inflation-adjusted real personal spending increased by 0.6%, marking the largest single-month growth since March 2025. The simultaneous occurrence of lower-than-expected inflation and resilient consumer spending adds complexity to the Fed's assessment of its future policy path. Following the data release, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose, and traders reduced their bets on a Fed rate hike in October. CME "FedWatch" now shows a 52.9% probability of maintaining rates unchanged in October. The yield on U.S. two-year Treasury notes fell over 5 basis points in the short term to 4.843%, while spot gold rose more than $20, surpassing $4210. The BEA also adjusted the calculation methods for certain PCE components this time, though it remains unclear how much impact these revisions had on the final data.