Rocky|Sep 30, 2026 07:16
Saw two data points today . The impact of high 10-year U.S. Treasury yields on the market is spreading!
Chart 1 shows the current S&P 500 components, where over 58% of stocks—more than 290 stocks—are trading below their 200-day moving average, which we often call the bull-bear dividing line. So, it’s clear that under the backdrop of high interest rates, it’s not that U.S. stocks haven’t fallen; it’s just that what we feel and focus on are mostly AI-related companies, and they haven’t dropped. That’s all there is to it!
Chart 2 shows a recent surge in U.S. Treasury purchases by a large number of American hedge funds based in the Cayman Islands. As of July 2026, these purchases have exceeded $210 billion (nearly $220 billion), hitting a historic high. With the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5.2%, hedge funds are not just engaging in basis trades but are primarily driven by risk-hedging needs. With such high-yield, risk-free opportunities, why chase the volatility and uncertainty of high-risk assets?
This squeeze on both ends reveals a significant capital outflow from the market, with funds shifting from risk assets to short-term U.S. Treasuries to secure stable returns. The market’s concern now isn’t how much higher rates will go but how long this high-rate environment will last. That’s the market’s biggest pain point!
Keep an eye on tonight’s PCE inflation data and the ADP private payrolls report!
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