律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|Sep 30, 2026 06:33
[U.S. September Nonfarm Payroll Data to Be Released Tonight, Significant Divergence Between Prediction Markets and Wall Street] BlockBeats News, September 30: Ahead of the release of the U.S. September nonfarm payroll report, prediction market traders are betting that job growth will exceed the general expectations of Wall Street economists. According to Kalshi data, the market estimates a nearly 60% probability that the U.S. will add more than 90,000 nonfarm jobs in September, and about a 50% probability that the increase will exceed 100,000. However, Wall Street investment banks have taken a more cautious stance on September's nonfarm payrolls. Goldman Sachs predicts an increase of 80,000 nonfarm jobs in September, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. Bank of America, on the other hand, forecasts only 60,000 new jobs, with 50,000 coming from the private sector. These forecasts indicate that Wall Street investment banks are not broadly betting on a significant rebound in September employment, with some institutions even predicting job growth significantly below market consensus, highlighting a clear divergence between prediction markets and traditional macroeconomic forecasts. On Tuesday, after New York Fed President Williams downplayed the urgency of rate hikes, federal funds futures showed that the market's expectation of another rate hike next month dropped from about 71% to 50%. The September employment report may be particularly crucial in breaking this rate hike pricing deadlock.
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