**[Bitunix Analyst: U.S. Treasury Short Trades Becoming Crowded, Inflation and Employment Data Key to Rate Reversal]** BlockBeats News, September 30 – Pressure in the U.S. bond market continues to rise. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5.61%, reaching its highest level since 2002, while the 10-year yield is nearing its peak since 2007. Rising energy prices, large-scale corporate bond issuance, and market expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes have collectively pushed up long-term financing costs. However, short positions in 5-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury futures have been accumulating, creating new asymmetric risks in the market: if the upcoming PCE inflation or non-farm payroll data falls below expectations, concentrated short covering could drive yields sharply lower. Notably, the structure of buyers in the U.S. Treasury market is also changing. Hedge funds now hold $2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, accounting for approximately 7% of tradable Treasuries, a record high. These funds provide liquidity through spot-futures basis trading but are highly dependent on short-term repo financing and leverage. While such trades improve pricing efficiency in stable markets, sharp yield fluctuations, tighter financing conditions, or increased margin requirements could trigger deleveraging, leading to forced selling and exacerbating liquidity pressures in the bond market. In the energy market, there is a coexistence of improved supply and persistent price risks. JPMorgan points out that Middle Eastern crude oil shipments have recovered to about 98% of pre-conflict levels, but refined product flows have only recovered to 58%, indicating that the energy supply chain has not fully normalized. The U.S. has once again proposed a 40-million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve loan program, but its actual impact depends on corporate borrowing willingness; a previous program of the same scale resulted in only about 500,000 barrels being borrowed. This suggests that nominal supply buffers do not necessarily translate into actual additional supply, and energy prices may still be influenced by geopolitical risks. Overall, market attention has focused on whether inflation persists and whether leverage risks can be controlled in a high-interest-rate environment. If economic data is strong, expectations of rate hikes and bond supply pressures may continue; if data weakens, crowded short positions could reverse more quickly. For risk assets, the key concern is not just the direction of yields but also the speed of rate changes and whether the market can withstand the liquidity shocks caused by concentrated unwinding.