Written before updating the core PCE data Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the most important data core PCE of the Federal Reserve will be updated. Although today's updated data will not be used as a basis for whether to raise interest rates in October, the market will still be affected in the short term. Firstly, the core PCE annual rate was 3.3% last month, and the market expectation for this month (August) is also 3.3%. The Cleveland Fed's expectation is 3.4%, and the gap is not very large, but it can also be clearly seen that the Fed hopes to reach 2%, and there is still a long way to go. So from the updated data, if the core PCE value is greater than 3.3%, although the Federal Reserve has already raised interest rates, the market will still worry about whether inflation will continue to rise, especially with the 10-year Treasury yield still at 5.2%. The market is likely to increase its pressure on interest rate hikes. This is definitely not a good thing for the US stock market and Bitcoin. If the core PCE data is equal to or less than 3.3%, although inflation is still at a high level, the Fed's interest rate hike can be seen as a forward-looking action and may not be very urgent, especially after Williams' speech early this morning, the market's probability of still raising interest rates in October has begun to decline. This situation is favorable for both the US stock market and Bitcoin: native. But that's not all. In addition to the annual rate of core PCE, there are also monthly rates that need to be considered. Previously, the high monthly rate of CPI caused market panic, but this time the monthly rate of core PCE was 0.2%, the market expectation was 0.3%, and the Cleveland Fed's forecast was 0.27% (0.3%). There is a high probability that the monthly rate of core PCE will rise, after all, oil prices are quite high. However, if it only rises to 0.3%, the market's reaction will not be too strong. But if it really rises to a higher level, the market is likely to panic and continue to worry about the Federal Reserve's aggressiveness. If the core PCE is greater than 3.3%, it may have a negative impact on the US stock market and Bitcoin. It's not over yet. Today, ADP's small non farm payroll data will be updated 15 minutes before the core PCE. According to the forecast, the number of employed people will increase from 38000 to 70000 new labor force, which is definitely positive for the labor market. That is to say, the US economy is still very strong, and the strong economy is the basis for the Federal Reserve's intervention to maintain high interest rates. The better the number of employed people, the higher the market expectation that the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates or maintain high interest rates. So the worst-case scenario today should be a significant increase in ADP data, with core PCE above 3.3% and monthly rate above 0.3%. One @ Gate, trade more markets