After $BTC broke the previous high, it pulled back and repeatedly tested the 82800 support. The strength of the support is being continuously depleted. A single pullback indicates a strong adjustment, but multiple repeated pullbacks suggest a weakening trend. Daily chart shows bearish divergence (price hitting new highs while MACD moves lower), which is a key warning signal for a pullback. Right now, it's not a good time to go long. Key pivot point: 82800 Best-case scenario: Consolidation to absorb the bearish divergence. Worst-case scenario: Breaking downward for a deeper pullback. Probability of continuing upward from the current level is less than 20%. Conclusion: Shorting offers better risk-reward. Shorting conditions: A confirmed break below 82800 can be seen as a shorting opportunity. The market might enter a larger weekly downtrend following a fake breakout. Tonight at 20:30, PCE data will be released, and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are coming on Friday. Currently, the market is consolidating with no clear breakout yet. However, each 4-hour rebound is weaker than the last, and short positions can still be initiated above 84000.