Chen Guilin's trading notes: September 30, 2026 1、 Speak up ahead A week ago, I mentioned that the cryptocurrency market has shifted from a simple mode to a difficult mode. At that time, there were still some imitations flying, so many people were dissatisfied But I've always said that the hardest part of playing knockoff is choosing coins. Difficulty mode: It does not necessarily mean a sharp drop, but a mode that makes you uncomfortable to short or long, and you cannot make money. If the stop loss is too low, he will frequently hit the stop loss. If the stop loss is too high, he will give you a small unilateral move. If there is no good opening position, he will immediately pull back after closing the position. He is playing with your emotions and damaging your position. The best way to deal with this pattern is three words: do not participate; But it's easier to know than to act, it all requires slow practice (including myself). 2、 Market situation 1. Da Bing has not yet replicated the violent pullback after the deviation from the daily top at the beginning of 2023, but it is important to have a contingency plan in mind for this trend; 2. Currently, what can be objectively seen is that although the bulls are not attacking at this position, they are not retreating either. Instead, they want to use a sideways approach to digest selling pressure. Compared to 2023, the biggest difference in the current market is that the market value has increased from 15000 to 25000 in 2023, and from 57000 to 87000. Yes, the biggest difference is the price, which is the market value; An increase in market value represents stronger stability and lower volatility; 3. If the market is sideways at this position, it means that no direction has been chosen. There is a divergence between long and short positions, with long positions not rushing and short positions not daring to rush. Therefore, the objective market situation caused by the game between small stock forces is to strike short-term high multiple contracts to stop losses due to small-scale fluctuations. There are ups and downs in long and short positions; 4. Several ways of moving from the daily line level: ① In 2023, with the support of negative news, the bulls chose to temporarily avoid the sharp edge. The bulls who entered first gave up and chose to let the bulls who wanted to get in the car eat some meat. The price fell and leaned closer to the cost zone, and the pancake retreated 10-15% from its highest point; ② There is no negative news, instead there is positive news. The big pie breaks through the previous high, but if there is insufficient financial momentum in the future, the daily indicators will still deviate. This is the accumulation of risks, and risks will definitely be released when they accumulate to a certain extent; ③ Choose a sideways trend to digest, above 80000, and use a narrow range oscillation to digest the deviation of daily level indicators. When the indicator enters the neutral range, it may be the starting point of the next rise, which is also the most powerful way to move. Time changes space, which not only prevents people from getting on the board to protect the cost line, but also allows the market to follow with confidence. Note that regardless of the style of the pancake, the adjustment range of the imitators will be much larger than that of the pancake. Mid term: The big cake has already determined to emerge from the push wave from the bottom. According to the principle that the push wave does not exist alone, no matter how it is adjusted this time, it is only a mid-term adjustment; There will be a significant upward trend in the future. The task of the first wave of bull market uptrend is to push the weekly MACD above the zero axis.