☀️ Bitcoin Market Early Bus Quick Review: Long term horizontal trend will inevitably lead to a decline, and short-term fluctuations will occur ❗ ️️ Let's start with the conclusion: bearish sentiment is weighing on the market, and BTC prices are bound to decline over time. BTC has been grinding in the narrow range of 82.5K-84.5K for almost a week, with ups and downs that are uncomfortable and no different from scumbags. The rebound high point keeps getting lower and lower, after 87500 it is 85K, and after that it cannot even touch 84600. A sideways trend is not accumulating momentum, it's the bulls running out of strength. Several key signals are pointing downwards: Futures leverage is experiencing a large-scale retreat. Over the past week, open contracts for Bitcoin futures have decreased by approximately 49000 BTC, marking the largest weekly decline since October 2025. The trader voluntarily closed a $4.1 billion position, not forcibly liquidated, but took profits and did not extend the maturity. ETF buying is stalling. On September 21st, there was a daily inflow of nearly 1 billion yuan, but by September 28th, there were only 31 million left, a sharp drop of 97% in a week. ETFs have always been driven by price fluctuations. Once the price stops, it slows down, and once the price drops, it runs away. The pressure of profit taking is too great. On chain data shows that the proportion of BTC supply in a profitable state has increased to 74%, and the realized profit/loss ratio has soared to 1.4, far above normal levels. Almost three-quarters of the chips are making money, and the urge to cash out cannot be suppressed with even a slight movement. The funding rate has turned negative. The funding rate for perpetual contracts on mainstream exchanges has dropped to around -0.3%, and bears need to pay bulls to maintain their bearish positions. This is completely opposite to the situation of "multiple queues entering the market" in early September. Why do I predict that 82500 won't hold? 82500 is the double bottom support for this pullback, which bounced back in both tests on September 23rd and 28th. But the third and fourth tests are usually used to break. There are a large number of long liquidation positions waiting below 82500. There is the densest bullish clearing cluster near $82500. Once negative news hits and the price falls below $82500, it will trigger a chain clearing and the price will quickly plummet. But the drop is not deep, there is no need to panic. Short positions are not strong either. In the past 24 hours, there have been over 121 million overstocked orders and only 71.97 million empty orders. The bears are probing and unable to launch a sustained attack. And the exchange reserves are declining, while whales and retail investors are accumulating. If the price really drops to around 80K, the chip intensive area of long-term holders will catch it. Xiaolong's core judgment: Long term fluctuations will inevitably lead to a decline, and there is a high probability that 82500 will not be able to hold on. But this is not a bear market, it is a healthy correction in a bull market. If the price drops to around 80K, it is an opportunity to board in batches. Tonight's PCE data is the catalyst, and if the core PCE exceeds expectations, it will quickly drop below 82500. If the data is mild, it may still struggle around 83K. But in the short term, the direction has already deviated. ⚡ The price fluctuations have narrowed, the structural form has converged, and the trading volume has shrunk. The short-term fluctuations in BTC will soon occur! Pay attention to the risk of short-term sharp decline.