The Fed is in an awkward spot right now Raise rates, and the US stock market drops. Don’t raise, and inflation won’t let it slide. Back in September, when the rate hike landed, the stock market was still climbing. Then Waller said, 'Inflation is too high,' and the Dow immediately tanked 600 points. The market isn’t afraid of rate hikes. It’s afraid of the people talking. October’s rate hike probability: 50%. The 'Fed’s third-in-command' said: We’ll need one more hike this year, but there’s no rush. Raise rates, and it’s suffocating. Don’t raise, and it’s gasping for air. Bitcoin doesn’t care anymore. After September’s rate hike, it actually surged to $88K. The bad news was priced in early, and when the shoe dropped, it turned into good news instead. Rate hikes are like a butcher’s knife, but the knife hasn’t even fallen yet— retail investors have already stabbed themselves.