Preliminary data released by Kpler on September 28 shows that crude oil exports from major Middle Eastern producers rebounded to about 12.8 million barrels per day in September. Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased shipments, but the level is still below the approximately 18.8 million barrels per day seen in February. This indicates signs of recovery in transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, even though negotiations have yet to reach a conclusion, with some supply already starting to resume. This could impact the negotiation dynamics between the U.S. and Iran. If more oil can continue to be shipped out, market concerns about supply shortages could ease, and the war premium in oil prices might decrease. For Trump, this could help reduce domestic pressure and potentially give him more time to continue negotiations. For Iran, the strategy of restricting transportation to force the U.S. into quicker concessions might weaken. On Trump’s side, the longer the war drags on, the harder it becomes to separate foreign policy issues from domestic economic concerns. Rising oil prices increase travel and transportation costs, ultimately affecting business operations and household expenses. Voters may not care about the details of the negotiations, but they will care about how much more expensive gas has become and whether living costs have gone down. These frustrations could impact the Republican Party’s election prospects. So, from a political standpoint, Trump has strong motivation to reduce the costs brought by the war. While he publicly emphasizes that he’s not considering the midterm elections, it could also be a signal to Iran not to expect that delaying tactics will lead to U.S. concessions. Therefore, there does seem to be a window to end the war in the short term, with the key being whether Trump will accept the terms. One @Gate, trade more markets