PCE data hasn't been released yet, BTC price fell first as a sign of respect! Why did the US stock market and BTC, the two brothers in distress, plummet today? The reason for the decline is very direct: Firstly, the yield on US Treasury bonds is too high. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds is above 5.2%, and the 30-year bond once hit 5.58%, reaching a new high since 2002. Who is willing to hold bitcoin without interest when buying treasury bond with a steady interest rate of more than 5% a year? This is the most direct form of suppression. Secondly, geopolitical risks are heating up again. Trump rejected Iran's seven day ceasefire plan, oil prices returned to over $100, and inflation expectations rose again. Thirdly, clear the position before data. Although the bull market has already started, unfavorable factors such as the expectation of interest rate hikes have suppressed it, coupled with this round of surge, profit taking positions have been closed, and trapped positions have been sold off. This round of downward exploration is more like clearing positions before key data hits and a healthy pullback after the bull market starts. The upcoming PCE expectations: The market expects core PCE to rise by 0.3% month on month, higher than the 0.2% in the previous two months. If it exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will further increase, and BTC is likely to test the 82500 support. If it meets or falls below expectations, short-term pressure will ease. My judgment remains unchanged: 82500 is the key support, holding it will lead to consolidation, and if it falls below, we will look at 80K-81K. The scenario with the highest probability of rebounding to 80K-81K is still the real opportunity to get on the car. ⚠️ Before the PCE data is released, do not chase after high prices, do not copy the bottom, and wait for the results. Yesterday morning at 9 o'clock, the BTC price trend was compared to the current BTC price trend, which is in line with expectations. Please refer to the following chart