The Kobeissi Letter|Sep 29, 2026 16:04
What is happening here.
The bond market is now pricing-in 4 more 25 basis point rate hikes by June 2027, a total of +125 basis points including September's hike.
Just 9 months ago, markets had expected at least 100 basis points of rate CUTS by June 2027.
That's a +225 basis point differential in interest rate expectations in a matter of months.
Meanwhile, the 10Y Note Yield is up nearly +70 basis points in 30 days with no comment from the Trump Administration.
To top it all off, after a failed attempt at intervention, the US Treasury is now completely silent as long-term yields surge to their highest level since June 2002.
The bond market is trading like 7%+ inflation is back and the Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time.
This is unsustainable.
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