**[HTX DeepThink: Narrowing Breadth in U.S. Stocks, Slowing ETF Inflows, Risk Asset Direction Still Hinges on Interest Rates]** Deep潮 TechFlow reports that on September 29, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe analyzed that the core focus for the next seven days is whether the market can absorb higher funding costs. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on September 16, and this week's data will directly impact the magnitude and duration of subsequent rate hikes. The baseline judgment is that risk assets will remain weak and volatile, with internal divergence continuing. For a sustained rebound to occur, the bond market must first release pressure. The vulnerability of U.S. stocks lies in the concentration of gains. As of September 25, the S&P 500 was less than 1% away from its historical high, yet the equal-weight index had already fallen by about 4% for the month, indicating that most stocks are already under pressure from rising interest rates, with the index primarily supported by a few heavyweight tech stocks. If yields continue to rise, earnings expectations will need to improve further to offset valuation compression. Even if the index rebounds, if the equal-weight index does not recover simultaneously, it will be difficult to confirm a broad-based recovery in risk appetite. Key tests include the September 30 PCE, October 2 non-farm payrolls, and the manufacturing and services PMI data to be released on October 1 and October 5. The most favorable combination would be cooling core inflation, moderate employment growth, and easing wage pressures. However, a sharp drop in employment could trigger concerns about earnings. Particularly worth observing is whether long-term yields decline following softer data. If short-term yields fall while long-term yields remain elevated, it would indicate that improved policy expectations are still insufficient to alleviate long-term financing pressures, limiting the rebound potential for tech stocks. The crypto market already has support from spot funds, but incremental inflows are slowing. According to Farside data, from September 21 to 25, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw cumulative net inflows of approximately $2.386 billion, but daily inflows declined from $999 million to $135 million over the period. The changes over these five trading days are not yet sufficient to confirm a trend reversal. If ETF inflows continue and the dollar and yields stabilize, BTC is likely to show greater resilience compared to small-cap tokens. However, if inflows turn negative while contract positions continue to expand, declines will be more prone to amplified liquidations. In the next seven days, the breadth of gains in U.S. stocks will be key, while the crypto market will focus on spot demand. Overall direction remains dependent on interest rate trends. *Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it represent an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.*