HTX DeepThink: Narrowing breadth of US stocks, slowing ETF inflows, risk asset direction still depends on interest rates BlockBeats News: On September 29th, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the core of the next seven days lies in whether the market can absorb higher capital costs. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% -4% on September 16th, and this week's data will directly affect the magnitude and duration of subsequent interest rate hikes. The benchmark judgment is that risk assets are volatile and weak, with continued internal differentiation. To shift towards a sustained rebound, the bond market needs to release pressure first. The fragility of the US stock market lies in its upward concentration. As of September 25th, the S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its historical high, while the weighted index has fallen by about 4% that month, indicating that most stocks are already under interest rate pressure and the index mainly relies on a few technological weights for support. If the yield continues to rise, profit expectations need to be further improved to offset valuation compression; Even if the index rebounds, it is difficult to confirm a comprehensive rebound in risk appetite if the equal weight index is not synchronously repaired. The key tests include PCE on September 30th, non farm payroll on October 2nd, and manufacturing and service PMI released on October 1st and 5th. The most favorable combination is cooling core inflation, moderate employment growth, and reduced wage pressure, while a sharp decline in employment may trigger profit concerns. It is particularly worth observing whether the long-term returns can decrease with the soft data. If the short end falls while the long end remains high, it indicates that the improvement in policy expectations is not enough to resolve the long-term financing pressure, and the rebound space of technology stocks will still be limited. The cryptocurrency market is already supported by spot funds, but the increase is slowing down. According to Farside data, the cumulative net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs from September 21st to 25th was approximately $2.386 billion, but the daily inflow decreased from $999 million to $135 million day by day. The five trading days' changes are not enough to confirm a trend reversal. If ETF inflows continue and the US dollar and returns stabilize, BTC is expected to be more resilient than small cap tokens; If the inflow turns negative and the contract position continues to expand, the decline will be more easily amplified by liquidation. In the next seven days, the US stock market is looking at the breadth of its rise, while the cryptocurrency market is looking at spot purchases. The overall direction still depends on the trend of interest rates. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.