Don’t be fooled by 'breaking previous highs' This BTC breakout lacks volume, with long wicks It keeps retesting again and again—the more it retests, The less bullish it is, as it’s draining the bulls’ strength Macro factors are even harsher: ceasefire rejected, oil prices rising Inflation expectations climbing, 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nearing 5.2% Money is getting more expensive, and risk assets fear this the most Two upcoming bombs: 9/30 PCE, 10/2 Non-Farm Payrolls Currently, rate hike probability is priced at about 70%, but the data will be the trigger Technical analysis in one sentence: weak rebound followed by another drop 82800 is the lifeline—hold it and observe further If it breaks, 80900 is the next stop Don’t act like a hero in a vacuum zone The 4th retest is here, and the probability of falling back into the range is clearly increasing Short positions: 83600–84400 base Stop loss: 85200 Target: 80900 (starting point of the big green candle) Long positions: wait for stabilization signals, then reassess Now is not the time to bottom fish