The probability of a rate hike in October has climbed to 70.9%. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are both on the rise, while gold offers no interest. The cost of holding gold has instantly become more expensive—capital is exiting, and gold prices are being continuously hammered down. This pullback feels a lot like the adjustment we saw before the September rate hike. The technicals are even harsher this time: XAU broke below the trendline support at 4250 and plunged. The daily chart closed with a massive bearish candle. Two key support levels to keep in mind: ① 4077 (the starting point of that big bullish candle) ② 4030 (the previous wick low) Now for resistance: First resistance at 4196 (midpoint of the big bearish candle) Strong resistance at 4250 (support-turned-resistance; don’t expect a reversal unless it holds above this level). Gold’s carrying cost is high, and there were already too many longs in the market. Now, the 15-minute chart is showing bullish divergence and starting to turn upward. Want to play a big rebound? At least wait for a 4H bullish divergence. If the rebound doesn’t recover more than one-third of the big bearish candle, it’s still a bear market.