HYPE airdrop worth 4.6 billion US dollars, fell 17% on the first day, but rose to 486 US dollars a year later? Hyperliquid's third season airdrop has not officially landed yet, and the community has already started arguing One side believes that continuing airdrops will only dilute existing holders, handing over a large number of HYPEs to volume boosting users, ultimately creating new selling pressure The other side believes that the real risk of Hyperliquid is not issuing more tokens, but losing the community as a protective barrier A recent HYPE airdrop scenario model has quantified this debate According to the basic scenario of the model, Hyperliquid will allocate 5% of the maximum supply, which is 50 million HYPEs. Calculated at the price of $91.71 used in the model, this batch of tokens is worth approximately $4.59 billion, equivalent to 11.6% of the reference circulation caliber Such a large-scale airdrop naturally generates significant short-term selling pressure The model estimates that if the selling impact of newly added tokens is calculated separately, HYPE may drop by about 30% on the first day, from around $92 to $64. But the model also adds another impact: after the airdrop is implemented, the market no longer needs to continuously discount "how many community tokens will be released in the future" After removing this uncertainty discount, a price buffer of about 15% can be formed. After offsetting the two effects, the basic scenario given by the model is that HYPE fell about 17% on the first day and reached around $76 What is even more controversial is the price one year later In the scenario of no airdrop, the 12-month target price given by the model is approximately $357; Under the basic airdrop scenario, the target price has actually increased to $486 The bull market scenario reaches $721, and the most optimistic scenario may even reach $822 Of course, these prices are not predictions, the model truly expresses another set of logic: As long as the new users, transaction volume, transaction fees, and repurchases brought by airdrops can exceed the one-time dilution of tokens, airdrops may create greater long-term value than selling pressure This is also the core viewpoint of the supporters of airdrops The future community share is already a potential supply known to the market, and as long as it is not allocated, it will remain above the HYPE valuation. It is difficult for the market to determine when, how much, to whom, and ultimately how much selling pressure these tokens will generate A clear scale airdrop may create short-term impact, but it also turns indefinite uncertainty into a computable event The market is usually easier to digest a known increase in supply rather than facing a long-term potential selling pressure that cannot be priced Airdrops may also bring new users into HyperCore, HyperEVM, HIP-3, and HIP-4. If users trade, provide liquidity, or use new products in order to obtain the third season airdrop, these activities will incur transaction fees The handling fee will be transferred to the Assistance Fund and converted into HYPE repurchase In an ideal situation, this would form a cycle: airdrops attract users, users create transaction volume, transaction volume generates transaction fees, transaction fees form repurchases, and repurchases gradually digest the newly added supply That's also why some people refer to the third season airdrop as the key catalyst for the next phase of Hyperliquid But this logic has a very strict premise - the users attracted by airdrops must be real and continuous, rather than brushing accounts that leave immediately after the reward ends If users only create transaction volume to claim HYPE, and the activity rapidly decreases after the airdrop ends, then the agreement will only leave higher circulation and greater selling pressure The basic scenario mentioned in the model is not solely based on airdrops to obtain $486 It also assumes that the overall Crypto market continues to grow, Hyperliquid expands its DEX market share, core fees increase significantly, HyperEVM revenue grows, HIP-4 generates actual trading volume, and the market is willing to give HYPE a higher valuation multiple Among them, the model also assumes that airdrops can contribute an additional incentive effect of about 20% to the growth of core transaction fees In other words, $486 is not the result of "sending 50 million HYPEs", but rather a result that may only occur after the airdrop is successfully converted into user, product usage, and transaction fee growth If HIP-3 continues to grow, HIP-4 truly generates revenue, and native perpetual contract fees return to high levels, then repurchases may gradually offset the one-time increase in supply But if these increases don't occur, airdrops are just dilution One time selling pressure is easy to calculate, but community and network effects are difficult to calculate Regardless of whether HYPE's third quarter airdrop is taking away existing value or using a portion of tokens to purchase Hyperliquid's next phase of growth But it seems to be getting closer and closer HYPE Hyperliquid Airdrops DeFi HIP3