𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|Sep 28, 2026 17:08
Hard to fully quantify, but this post pandemic era may be the least interest rate-sensitive American households have ever been. The Covid stimmy tailwind, huge ongoing fiscal transfers, the huge buy/refi wave at all-time low mortgage rates, and the swelling of the net-dissaving retired population who are wealthier than they've ever been... all contribute to insulating the average consumer from higher rates. Obviously has a shelf life, but it complicates the Fed response function. It carries heavy implications for how effective an easing will be in the next slowdown. Rate insensitivity cuts both directions.
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